New BASIC realities

Monica Araya

January 19, 2010

Copenhagen failed to deliver a climate deal but did trigger a vital shakeup of climate politics. With the birth of the BASIC bloc -Brazil, South Africa, India and China–the world must wake up to the arrival of new players in global rulemaking: Copenhagen marked their first victory as a team. The political document resulting from the summit, the Copenhagen Accord, was a product of the behind-the-scenes trading between the US and the BASIC bloc and a subsequent consultation with about 25 countries.

The EU went from being a decision-maker in Kyoto to a reluctant decision-taker in Copenhagen. It is not easy being the EU. The bloc includes early champions of the low carbon economy, notably Germany, the UK and France, but also expanded since the Kyoto days to assemble 27 disparate members including some climate foot-draggers often hiding behind Poland. These dynamics have often put a break on the ambition of the European climate agenda. Frustratingly, climate advocates could not persuade the EU to commit to a 30% reduction of its 2020 emissions compared to 1990 mostly as result of intra-EU wrestling. Add to these internal divisions a weak diplomatic strategy for Copenhagen and the outcome for the EU is disastrous: Merkel, Sarkozy and Brown were not at the table during the decisive horse-trading between Obama and the leaders of the BASIC team, Lula, Zuma, Singh, and Jiabao.

A BASIC alliance creates opportunities for the global decarbonisation agenda… We need economic and political pathways to limit the increase of average global temperature to no more than 2 degrees Celsius. (Many scientists, advocates, small islands even call for a 1.5 degree threshold). A decarbonised global economy must engage the US and the BASIC bloc, in particular China and India. Copenhagen was the trigger of a unprecedented give-and-take among these key players. Obama engaged after 8 years of US inaction and had to do so in terms that enhanced, not harmed, the prospects of passing a US climate bill. A 2 degree world requires the US to have this law approved in early 2010. This law has no chances without China moving forward as well. Despite their aggressive tactics at Copenhagen (It is said China is responsible for the lack of quantitative references in the Copenhagen Accord), this country and the BASIC bloc finally spoke as major economic powers. They have left behind a too-poor-to-act rationale that no longer matches their economic prospects (e.g. Brazil’s economy is expected to outgrow France’s and the UK’s by 2015), growing political clout (e.g. In 2008, Costa Rica “uninvited” the Dalai Lama to avoid conflicts with China) or carbon footprint (e.g. future emissions from the BASIC countries are as harmful as historical emissions from developed countries).

…but a stronger BASIC group also creates unique challenges, so what’s next? Trust-building. The new engagement of the BASIC countries and the US in Copenhagen came with a high price for the climate: the Copenhagen Accord lacks ambition and specifics. It is a letter of intentions, but not legal commitments. And there is no guarantee 2010 will deliver the foundational climate deal that science requires. So much more foundational work must be done and much of it will need to be conducted outside climate diplomacy. Agreeing some top-down legal mechanisms through the UN will be necessary but must be complemented with specialized summitry, most notably the Major Economies Forum, the G20 and APEC. Many other climate and sustainability objectives, perhaps the majority, must move forward through bottom-up dynamics (e.g. ecocity initiatives, green infrastructure projects, low impact consumer programs). Trust-building is essential. Sadly, Copenhagen was the most recent casualty of the mistrust and blame-games that I witnessed at the Bella center last month. Fortunately, we find hope elsewhere, and much of it in pioneering developing countries: entrepreneurs, advocates, scientists, investors, innovators, teachers, city majors, activists, faith leaders, musicians will move forward regardless of Copenhagen. Their efforts are critical if we are to rebuild trust and win the case for a low carbon transformation.

Monica Araya, Costa Rican expert, senior associate at E3G.